Cold, white Christmases in Illinois happen less often than expected

By Tom Emery

For those of you dreaming of a white Christmas, your odds in Illinois are not good.

And while we commonly associate Christmas in the Land of Lincoln with cold weather, the average highs on Santa’s big day are surprisingly moderate.

The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as having at least an inch of snow on the ground by 6 a.m. on Christmas morning. In much of the state, that happens less than half of the time.

For the St. Louis metro area, historically there is a 20 percent chance of a white Christmas. In Springfield, capital city residents have enjoyed (or endured, depending on one’s point of view) at least an inch of snow on Christmas only 33 times in 120 years of record-keeping on snow totals.

Of course, the chances are higher to the north. Moline residents have a 42 percent chance for white on Christmas morning. In Chicago, there are measured snowfalls 54 percent of the time on Christmas.

And, if there is snow on Christmas, it likely won’t be much. The record Christmas snowfall in Chicago, one of the snowier locales in the state, is 5.1 inches on Dec. 25, 1950.

Five inches fell in the Windy City on Christmas 1909, when Moline set its record for greatest snow depth on Christmas at twelve inches.

Temperatures on Christmas in Illinois are also decent most of the time, relatively speaking. While highs in Dec. in Illinois are hardly warm, the majority of high temperatures on Christmas have historically not been frigid at most major reporting stations.

At Evansville, Ind., which reflects the temps for much of southeastern Illinois, 85 of the highs on Christmas in 125 years of reporting have been in the thirties or forties. Nearby, the results at Paducah, Ky. show highs from 30-49 in 71 of 85 years. Average highs on Christmas in St. Louis reach 39 degrees.

Lawmakers are gone in Springfield at Christmastime, leaving the locals to enjoy high temperatures on Christmas in the thirties or forties in 85 of 140 years. The normal high there, as well as in Quincy, on Christmas is 36, with a low of 20.

In Moline, the top temps on Christmas have fallen in that range 80 times in 145 years, with an average high of 32 and a low of 16.

The norms on Yuletide are similar in Chicago. On Christmas Day, that city’s averages are 32 and 18.

In some parts of Illinois, the high temperatures on Christmas are almost as likely to be above 50 as below 32. The frequency of Christmas highs in Springfield below freezing is 15 percent, compared to 10 percent above 50 degrees.

Though Christmas temperatures in most regions of Illinois have moderated in recent decades, some of the coldest highs and lows have been in the last few years.

Of the 18 Christmases with lows below zero in Moline since 1874, eight have occurred since 1980 including the city’s record low on Christmas, a bone-chilling minus-18 on Dec. 25, 2000. Six of Chicago’s eleven Christmas lows below zero have occurred in the same span.

On the other end, St. Louis set its all-time Christmas record for warmest high and low temperatures in 1889, when the mercury hit 71 and only dipped to 56. There was a high of 59 that day in Springfield, with 50 in Moline.

The record warmest low temperature on December 25 in Springfield was 46 degrees in 1936, the same day that Moline set its warmest minimum temperature on Christmas, with a low of 50. Quincy also had a record-warm low of 51 on Christmas 1936. Surely that was a welcome respite, as 1936 was one of the worst weather years in state history, with a brutal winter and a searing-hot summer.

Three years ago in 2019, Christmas was one of the warmest in state history, as the mercury hit 64 degrees in Springfield and 63 in Peoria, records for both cities. Moline also set a record, as its high of 62 smashed the old mark of 59, set in 1936.

Bloomington tied a record high at 61 degrees in 2019, while Decatur also matched its all-time high at 63. St. Louis missed its all-time mark by one degree, at 70. It was also warm in much of the state on Christmas 2021, as Springfield hit a high of 61, while Carbondale came in at 74.

Weather on Christmas, like any other day on the calendar, can vary widely from year to year. The coldest high temperature on Christmas in Chicago history was zero degrees in 1983 – one year after the record high, 64 degrees in 1982.

Tom Emery is a freelance writer and historical researcher from Carlinville, Ill. He may be reached at 217-710-8392 or [email protected].